{"id":1378,"date":"2008-12-23T13:14:17","date_gmt":"2008-12-23T12:14:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wp.mehmetcanyuece.com\/2008\/12\/23\/resesyonun-ard-deflasyon-mu-tuerkel-minibas\/"},"modified":"2008-12-23T13:14:17","modified_gmt":"2008-12-23T12:14:17","slug":"resesyonun-ard-deflasyon-mu-tuerkel-minibas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/resesyonun-ard-deflasyon-mu-tuerkel-minibas\/","title":{"rendered":"Resesyonun Ard\u0131 Deflasyon mu? \u2013 T\u00fcrkel Miniba\u015f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n \t<\/i> Read Time:<\/span>2 Minute, 51 Second <\/div>\n\n <\/div>

<\/span>Ge\u00e7en hafta \u201cG\u00f6z Ucuyla<\/em>\u201dya \u201cDeflasyon tehlikesi b\u00fcy\u00fcrken…<\/strong>\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 atarken b\u00f6yle bir tan\u0131 i\u00e7in erken mi diye epey d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcm. Haftas\u0131 ge\u00e7meden T\u00dcS\u0130AD\u2019dan resesyon uyar\u0131s\u0131 ve i\u00e7 talebin canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 istemi gelince, erkenci olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fcm.<\/p>\n

Malum, resesyon dedi\u011finiz; ekonominin durgunlu\u011fa girmesi. Yani, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n azalmas\u0131\u2026 Derken yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve yurti\u00e7i sipa-ri\u015flerin iptali… K\u0131sacas\u0131, talebin daralmas\u0131 sonucu sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n azalmas\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fveren g\u00f6zl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcyle bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda: Daralan talep nedeniyle sat\u0131\u015flar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden k\u00e2r oranlar\u0131 da h\u0131zla gerilemeye ba\u015flamakta. \u0130\u015fveren de en kolayc\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olan emek fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclterek durgunlu\u011fa dayanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmakta. B\u00f6ylelikle hem vergi indirimi, te\u015fvik, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli kredi gibi destekleri \u00e7abukla\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in h\u00fck\u00fcmetler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturma olana\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakalamakta! Hem de globalizmle gelen esnek \u00fcretim ve y\u00f6netim bi\u00e7imleri i\u00e7in gerekli zemine grev benzeri kar\u015f\u0131 duru\u015flarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmadan kavu\u015fmu\u015f oluyorlar.<\/p>\n

General Motors\u2019un, Ford\u2019un yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi \u00f6nce \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131lmas\u0131, k\u00e2r oranlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in devletten bekledikleri deste\u011fi bulamad\u0131klar\u0131nda da en b\u00fcy\u00fck silahlar\u0131 olan fabrikalar\u0131 kapatma kozunu oynamalar\u0131, bunun global boyuttaki son \u00f6rnekleri!<\/p>\n

Resesyon nedeniyle fiyatlar\u0131n yar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisinin giderek artmas\u0131, deflasyon riskini hi\u00e7 de k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmasmemek gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6stermekte. T\u00dcS\u0130AD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Arzuhan Do\u011fan Yal\u00e7\u0131nda\u011f<\/strong>\u2019\u0131n i\u00e7 talebin canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gere\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 defalarca \u00e7izmesinin temelinde de ayn\u0131 kayg\u0131n\u0131n yatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kesin.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan i\u00e7 talebin canlanmas\u0131, fiyatlar kadar para politikas\u0131na da ba\u011fl\u0131. Yani, faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki gerileme bireyleri tasarruf yerine t\u00fcketime y\u00f6nlendirebilir. Ne var ki, para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7 talep \u00fczerinde canland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etki yapabilmesi:<\/p>\n

\u2022 gelece\u011fe dair belirsizliklerin ortadan kalkmas\u0131na;<\/p>\n

\u2022 piyasan\u0131n \u015feffaf, yani yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m se\u00e7enekleri aras\u0131nda karar verirken temiz bilgiye sahip olmas\u0131na;<\/p>\n

\u2022 h\u00fck\u00fcmet \u00fcyelerinin en az\u0131ndan cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 ile ba\u015fbakan\u0131n ekonomik s\u00f6ylemlerinde tutarl\u0131l\u0131k ve b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fck sergilemelerine;<\/p>\n

\u2022 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ve sat\u0131\u015f \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketiciyi sat\u0131n almaya \u00f6zendirmesine ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n

Faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki gerilemenin i\u00e7 talebi nas\u0131l tetikleyece\u011finin en \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergelerinden biri, tabii ki t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi. Gelin g\u00f6r\u00fcn ki kas\u0131mda endeks y\u00fczde 7.22 azalarak 68.88\u2019e geriledi. Gelecek d\u00f6nemde yar\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik harcama yapma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini g\u00f6steren endeks y\u00fczde 3.29 azalarak 92.46\u2019ya\u2026 Gelecek d\u00f6nemde dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 sat\u0131n alma ihtimali de y\u00fczde 6.67 azalarak 14.87\u2019ye gerilemi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sacas\u0131, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 1.25 puanl\u0131k son faiz indiriminin i\u00e7 talebi canland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 beklememek gerek.<\/p>\n

Kald\u0131 ki, ekonomideki yava\u015flaman\u0131n i\u00e7 talep \u00fczerindeki etkisini ve\u2026 2009\u2019un nas\u0131l seyredece\u011fini yakalayabilmek i\u00e7in 2008\u2019in ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen verilerine \u015f\u00f6yle bir bakmak bile yeterli. \u00d6rne\u011fin:<\/p>\n

\u2022 B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 2008\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 0.5\u2019e indi. Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u201cs\u0131f\u0131r\u201d b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi b\u00f6ylelikle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015f oldu, ama\u2026 S\u0131f\u0131r ya da negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131na hen\u00fcz ula\u015f\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, resesyon riskini yine de ortadan kald\u0131rmamakta. Zira, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte kamu harcamalar\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 beklenenin \u00fcst\u00fcnde artt\u0131. Kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 18.4, kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n da y\u00fczde 22.2 oran\u0131nda artmas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki h\u0131zl\u0131 gerilemeyi frenledi.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Sanayi \u00fcretim endeksinde 3 ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren gerileme imalat sanayiine ekimde y\u00fczde 10.3 olarak yans\u0131d\u0131. \u0130malat sanayiinin sadece 1 ayda y\u00fczde 10.3 gerilemesi, b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki yava\u015flaman\u0131n s\u00fcreklilik kazanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rd\u0131! H\u00fck\u00fcmetin h\u00e2l\u00e2 bunu 2009 b\u00fct\u00e7esine yans\u0131tmamas\u0131 ise, muhtemeldir, bizim kadar IMF\u2019nin de cevab\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fi sorular aras\u0131nda yer almakta!<\/p>\n

\u2022 Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m anketine g\u00f6re imalat sanayii yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 da 2007\u2019ye g\u00f6re cari fiyatlarla y\u00fczde 34.3 azalm\u0131\u015f.. 2009\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenen yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 da \u015fimdiden y\u00fczde 10.6 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Bu da istihdam artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 s\u00f6ylemlerin iyi niyetten \u00f6teye ge\u00e7meyece\u011fini; istihdam artmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece i\u00e7 talebin canlanamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermekte!<\/p>\n

Uzun laf\u0131n k\u0131sas\u0131, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00f6zellikle de b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u00fcretici ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar resesyon uyar\u0131s\u0131 yaparken AKP\u2019nin demodelikten kurtulup \u201ckriz de\u011fdi-de\u011fmedi\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 rafa kald\u0131rma zaman\u0131 \u00e7oktan ge\u00e7ti! Ama, gelin de bunu Ba\u015fbakan\u2019a anlat\u0131n!<\/p>\n

Cumhuriyet \/ 23.12.08<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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Ge\u00e7en hafta \u201cG\u00f6z Ucuyla\u201dya \u201cDeflasyon tehlikesi b\u00fcy\u00fcrken…\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 atarken b\u00f6yle bir tan\u0131 i\u00e7in erken mi diye epey d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcm. Haftas\u0131 ge\u00e7meden T\u00dcS\u0130AD\u2019dan resesyon uyar\u0131s\u0131 ve i\u00e7 talebin canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 istemi gelince, erkenci olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fcm. Malum, resesyon dedi\u011finiz; ekonominin durgunlu\u011fa girmesi. Yani, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n azalmas\u0131\u2026 Derken yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve yurti\u00e7i sipa-ri\u015flerin iptali… K\u0131sacas\u0131, talebin daralmas\u0131 sonucu sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n azalmas\u0131. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_gspb_post_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1378","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tuerkiye-basn"],"blocksy_meta":[],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1378","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1378"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1378\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1378"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1378"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1378"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}