{"id":1334,"date":"2008-12-03T12:14:11","date_gmt":"2008-12-03T11:14:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wp.mehmetcanyuece.com\/2008\/12\/03\/krizin-tuerkiyeye-olas-etkileri-cueneyt-uelsever\/"},"modified":"2008-12-03T12:14:11","modified_gmt":"2008-12-03T11:14:11","slug":"krizin-tuerkiyeye-olas-etkileri-cueneyt-uelsever","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/krizin-tuerkiyeye-olas-etkileri-cueneyt-uelsever\/","title":{"rendered":"Krizin T\u00fcrkiye’ye olas\u0131 etkileri – C\u00fcneyt \u00dclsever"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n \t<\/i> Read Time:<\/span>2 Minute, 22 Second <\/div>\n\n <\/div>

<\/span>D\u00dcN yazd\u0131m. Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nde kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131m “Global Finansal Kriz ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye Etkileri” konferans\u0131nda 1999 y\u0131l\u0131nda Nobel ekonomi \u00f6d\u00fcl\u00fcn\u00fc alan Robert A. Mundell, ekonomi politika uzman\u0131 Arvid Lukauskas ve uluslararas\u0131 finans ve geli\u015fme ekonomileri uzman\u0131 Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz\u2019i dinleme f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 yakalad\u0131m. D\u00fcn Rivera-Batiz\u2019in konu\u015fmas\u0131ndan hareketle global krizin nedenlerini irdeledim.<\/strong> <\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye <\/strong>dahil, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere olas\u0131 etkilerini yazaca\u011f\u0131m. <\/p>\n

Rivera-Batiz<\/strong>\u2019in verdi\u011fi rakamlara g\u00f6re, krizin etkisiyle Gayri Safi Milli Gelir<\/strong> art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde \u015fu \u015fekilde olacak (%): <\/p>\n

Bu karamsar <\/strong>tablo e\u015fli\u011finde Prof. Rivere-Batiz, krizin ABD\u2019den geli\u015fmekte olan pazarlara a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da s\u0131ralad\u0131\u011f\u0131m y\u00f6ntemlerle transfer oldu\u011funu\/olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor:<\/strong> <\/p>\n

1) Batan mortgage (ipotekli) kredilerine<\/strong> yat\u0131r\u0131m yapm\u0131\u015f\/bor\u00e7 vermi\u015f geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerdeki kurumlar ve ki\u015filer paralar\u0131n\u0131 geri almayacaklar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz etkilenecekler. Bunlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda Rus oligarklar\u0131 ve UBS gibi k\u00f6kl\u00fc bankalar geliyor. <\/p>\n

2) Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde \u015fubeleri, ortakl\u0131klar\u0131 vb. olan ve krizden etkilenen ABD<\/strong> ve Avrupa bankalar\u0131<\/strong> krizi bu \u00fclkelere ta\u015f\u0131yacaklar. <\/p>\n

3) \u0130rlanda <\/strong>ve \u0130spanya<\/strong> gibi \u00fclkeler benzer morgage kredileri<\/strong> ABD ile beraber geli\u015ftirdikleri i\u00e7in d\u00fcnyada gayrimenkul fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle <\/strong>birlikte krize girdiler. <\/p>\n

4) Finansal kriz ekonomiyi yava\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD ve di\u011fer zengin \u00fclkeler geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerden daha az mal<\/strong> alacaklar. Geli\u015fmekte olanlar\u0131n ihracat\u0131<\/strong> d\u00fc\u015fecek. Zaten emtia (mal) fiyatlar\u0131 <\/strong>\u00e7oktan d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/p>\n

\u0130thalat\u0131<\/strong> azalan ABD\u2019nin ise d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda<\/strong> nispi azalma olacak. <\/p>\n

5) \u0130hracat\u0131<\/strong>, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ekonomisi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen<\/strong> \u00fclkelere atfedilen risk fakt\u00f6rleri<\/strong> y\u00fckselecek. Bu \u00fclkelerden yabanc\u0131 sermaye ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/strong> ya\u015fanacak. 2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda borsas\u0131 yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile en fazla de\u011fer kaybeden \u00fclke Rusya (%68.9). <\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye <\/strong>ise %67.6<\/strong> de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ile maalesef 2. s\u0131rada. <\/p>\n

6) \u00d6zellikle cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> milli gelirinin %5\u2019ini ge\u00e7en \u00fclkeler (T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131k %6.6!) \u00e7ok zor \u015fartlarda yabanc\u0131 kredi<\/strong> bulacaklar. <\/p>\n

7) Sonu\u00e7ta geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin para birimleri<\/strong> dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131na u\u011frayacaklar. 2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda halen T\u00fcrkiye<\/strong> G\u00fcney Kore\u2019den (%48.7) sonra milli paras\u0131 en fazla de\u011fer kaybeden 2. \u00fclke! TL<\/strong>\u2019nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 halen %41<\/strong>! <\/strong><\/p>\n

* * *<\/strong> <\/p>\n

Peki T\u00fcrkiye ne yapmal\u0131? <\/p>\n

Prof. Dr. Rivera-Batiz\u2019e g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye IMF ile mutlaka anla\u015fmak zorunda!<\/strong> <\/p>\n

Ancak IMF\u2019nin enflasyon<\/strong> artar korkusuyla s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131<\/strong> ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla y\u00fcksek faiz uygulamas\u0131<\/strong> dayatmas\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmemek gerekiyor. Enflasyon y\u00fckseliyor ama global ekonomideki duraklama <\/strong>ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda<\/strong> halen ya\u015fanmakta olan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f enflasyonu zaten kendili\u011finden dizginleyecek. T\u00fcrkiye, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybeden TL\u2019yi korumaya da kalkmas\u0131n. Zira b\u00f6yle bir para politikas\u0131 piyasalardan dolar sat\u0131n almay\u0131<\/strong> te\u015fvik edece\u011fi i\u00e7in faizleri<\/strong> art\u0131r\u0131r ve yine para arz\u0131nda<\/strong> daralmalara neden olarak ekonomiyi durdurur. <\/p>\n

\u00d6zetle T\u00fcrkiye bu d\u00f6nemde her ne pahas\u0131na olursa olsun ekonomik aktiviteyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek, ihracat\u0131 te\u015fvik etmek, katma de\u011feri y\u00fcksek mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131na prim vermek, tasarruf art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zendirmek zorundad\u0131r. <\/strong><\/p>\n

2007<\/strong> 2008 2009 <\/strong><\/p>\n

ABD 2.0<\/strong> 1.4-0.9 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Japonya 2.1 <\/strong>0.5-0.1 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Euro alan\u0131 2.6<\/strong> 1.0-0.6 <\/p>\n

\u0130zlanda 4.9<\/strong> 1.5 9.3<\/strong> <\/p>\n

Meksika 3.2<\/strong> 1.9 0.4<\/strong> <\/p>\n

T\u00dcRK\u0130YE 4.6<\/strong> 3.3 1.6<\/strong> <\/p>\n

H\u00fcrriyet \/ 03.12.08<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/p>\n

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D\u00dcN yazd\u0131m. Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nde kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131m “Global Finansal Kriz ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye Etkileri” konferans\u0131nda 1999 y\u0131l\u0131nda Nobel ekonomi \u00f6d\u00fcl\u00fcn\u00fc alan Robert A. Mundell, ekonomi politika uzman\u0131 Arvid Lukauskas ve uluslararas\u0131 finans ve geli\u015fme ekonomileri uzman\u0131 Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz\u2019i dinleme f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 yakalad\u0131m. D\u00fcn Rivera-Batiz\u2019in konu\u015fmas\u0131ndan hareketle global krizin nedenlerini irdeledim. Bug\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye dahil, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere olas\u0131 etkilerini […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_gspb_post_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tuerkiye-basn"],"blocksy_meta":[],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1334","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1334"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1334\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}