{"id":1318,"date":"2008-11-25T09:53:38","date_gmt":"2008-11-25T08:53:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wp.mehmetcanyuece.com\/2008\/11\/25\/tuem-seferler-iptal-edildi-ergin-yldzoglu\/"},"modified":"2008-11-25T09:53:38","modified_gmt":"2008-11-25T08:53:38","slug":"tuem-seferler-iptal-edildi-ergin-yldzoglu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/tuem-seferler-iptal-edildi-ergin-yldzoglu\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcm Seferler \u0130ptal Edildi \u2013 Ergin Y\u0131ld\u0131zo\u011flu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n \t<\/i> Read Time:<\/span>4 Minute, 37 Second <\/div>\n\n <\/div>

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Tarihin sonuna, liberal demokrasinin, k\u00fcresel serbest piyasan\u0131n<\/strong> egemen oldu\u011fu, ABD tarz\u0131n\u0131n genelle\u015fti\u011fi yerdeki (orada, tek olumsuzluk, art\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck olaylar ya\u015fanmayacak olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanan bir can s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131ym\u0131\u015f) istasyona giden tren seferlerinde son y\u0131llarda b\u00fcy\u00fck aksamalar ya\u015fan\u0131yordu. Ge\u00e7en hafta gelen haberlere bak\u0131l\u0131rsa t\u00fcm seferler art\u0131k s\u00fcresiz olarak iptal edildi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Birincisi, seksen y\u0131l \u00f6nce k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin mezar\u0131n\u0131 kazan bir \u201colay\u201d<\/em> yine g\u00fcndemde. \u0130kincisi, ABD Ulusal \u0130stihbarat Konseyi<\/strong>\u2019nin raporu, liberal demokrasinin, ABD tarz\u0131n\u0131n genelle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 resmen ilan ediyor.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck depresyon redux<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en hafta d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomi yay\u0131nlar\u0131nda yorumlar, tart\u0131\u015fmalar, \u201ck\u00fcresel resesyon\u201d <\/em>kavram\u0131ndan depresyon <\/strong>olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kaymaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu nedenle, seksen y\u0131l \u00f6nce \u201cdepresyon\u201d <\/em>olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan d\u00f6nemin \u00f6zelliklerini k\u0131saca an\u0131msamak yararl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck depresyon \u00f6ncelikle bir kredi k\u00f6p\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn patlamas\u0131, borsalarda y\u00fczde 50\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu sars\u0131nt\u0131lara paralel uzun s\u00fcren, derin bir ekonomik durgunluk, iki haneli say\u0131lara ula\u015fan i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131, uzun s\u00fcreli bir fiyat deflasyonu g\u00f6zlemleniyor. Bu depresyonu, borsadaki d\u00fczeltmeleri izleyen herhangi bir resesyondan ay\u0131rt eden en \u00f6nemli \u00f6zellikler kronik deflasyon v<\/strong>e uzun s\u00fcreli, y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131<\/strong>. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu iki g\u00f6sterge, s\u0131radan bir temizli\u011fi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren devresel resesyonlardan \u00f6te, geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir sermaye ve emek imha s\u00fcrecinin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu y\u00fczden depresyon,<\/strong> siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, yerel, b\u00f6lgesel sava\u015flar, devrimler, sa\u011f pop\u00fclist (fa\u015fist) rejimler yaratma potansiyelleri i\u00e7erdi\u011finden, kapitalist \u00fcretim tarz\u0131n\u0131n en tehlikeli d\u00f6nemini olu\u015fturur.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en hafta 7500\u2019lere kadar indikten sonra, yaln\u0131zca bir s\u00f6ylenti \u00fczerinde cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 500 puan s\u0131\u00e7rayan Dow Jones, <\/em>ama daha kapsay\u0131c\u0131 olan Standard & Poors 500 <\/em>indeksleri olmak \u00fczere, Avrupa\u2019dan Japonya\u2019ya kadar borsa indekslerine bak\u0131nca, hemen hepsinin zirve noktalar\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde elliden fazla de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dahas\u0131 krizin ilk y\u0131l\u0131 olan 2007\u2019de, Dow Jones\u2019un kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n 1929 krizindeki ilk y\u0131l kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f olmas\u0131 da ilgin\u00e7 (Chartoftheday.com; aktaran Ahmet \u00d6nc\u00fc<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

Kredi k\u00f6p\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn delinmesiyle ba\u015flayan s\u00fcre\u00e7te, ABD\u2019den Avro b\u00f6lgesine, \u0130ngiltere\u2019den Japonya\u2019ya, di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin en az y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131 (geli\u015fmekte olanlar\u0131 katarsak y\u00fczde 80\u2019den fazlas\u0131) resesyona girmi\u015f durumda. Kapasite fazlas\u0131, talep yetersizli\u011fi sorunu, \u00f6ncelikle a\u011f\u0131r sanayi, ama elektronik ve elektrikli aletler sekt\u00f6rlerinde de giderek a\u011f\u0131rla\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcyse, en canl\u0131 piyasalarda bile filler mezarl\u0131\u011f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Middle East Times\u2019\u0131<\/em>n edit\u00f6r\u00fc Claude Salhani <\/strong>ge\u00e7en haftaki yorumunda, Dubai\u2019<\/strong>de \u201cvin\u00e7lerin sustu\u011funu\u201d a<\/em>ktar\u0131yordu (ME Time 20\/11.08). Bu sekt\u00f6rlerdeki daralmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, petrol ve temel metaller gibi girdilerin fiyatlar\u0131 da h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fmeye devam ediyor. Bu y\u00fczden ge\u00e7en hafta, New York Times,<\/em> Financial Times,<\/em> Washington Post, Le Monde <\/em>gibi gazetelerin yorumlar\u0131, Krugman <\/strong>ve Roubini <\/strong>gibi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f ekonomistlerin yaz\u0131lar\u0131, \u0131srarla deflasyon tehlikesini vurguluyordu.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en hafta ABD otomotiv sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, 250 binden fazla i\u015fi yok etmek \u00fczere \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn e\u015fi\u011finde kurtar\u0131lmay\u0131 beklerken, gelen veriler genelde i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmaya devam ederek son 26 y\u0131l\u0131n (neo-liberalizm ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana) en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belgeliyordu. \u00d6nc\u00fc G\u00f6stergeler \u0130ndeksi<\/em>\u2019ndeki gerileme, bu y\u0131l toplam 1.2 milyon ki\u015fi artarak y\u00fczde 6.5\u2019e ula\u015fan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmeye devam ederek gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 10\u2019un \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n

Avro b\u00f6lgesinde de benzer bir durum s\u00f6z konusu. Otomotiv sekt\u00f6r\u00fc s\u00fcrekli i\u015f\u00e7i \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r performans\u0131n\u0131 izleyen Sat\u0131n Alma M\u00fcd\u00fcrleri \u0130ndeksi<\/em>\u2019nin (50\u2019nin alt\u0131s\u0131 daralma g\u00f6steriyor), kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda beklenmedik sertlikle, y\u00fczde 43.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 39.7\u2019ye gerilemesi, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Avro b\u00f6lgesinde y\u00fczde 7.5\u2019te seyreden i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n gelecek y\u0131l kolayl\u0131kla iki haneli say\u0131lara ula\u015fabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyordu.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcm bunlara kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Wall Street Journal\u2019<\/em>a g\u00f6re h\u00fck\u00fcmetler finans sistemini ve ekonomiyi stabilize edecek ara\u00e7lar\u0131 h\u0131zla t\u00fcketiyorlar (McCay, 19\/11\/08). The Australian\u2019<\/em>da bir yorumcu \u201chi\u00e7bir \u015fey i\u015fe yaram\u0131yor\u201d<\/em> (aktaran Salhani) diyor. Roubini\u2019nin i\u015faret etti\u011fi gibi bir \u201clikidite kapan\u0131\u201d <\/em>olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131 (RGE, 21\/11\/08). \u00d6zetle ABD ve di\u011fer geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler h\u0131zla bir depresyona <\/strong>do\u011fru yuvarlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

2025\u2019te \u2018kaosa\u2019 do\u011fru<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n ikinci ilgin\u00e7 geli\u015fmesi de Ulusal \u0130stihbarat Konseyi<\/strong>\u2019nin (NIC) ABD hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131n sona erdi\u011fini resmen a\u00e7\u0131klayan raporuydu. Bu raporlar d\u00f6rt y\u0131lda bir yay\u0131mlan\u0131yor ve biri \u00f6b\u00fcr\u00fcne pek benzemiyor. Bu y\u00fczden raporun gelece\u011fi ger\u00e7ekten g\u00f6r\u00fcp g\u00f6rmedi\u011fi pek \u00f6nemli de\u011fil. \u0130lgin\u00e7 olan, t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bildi\u011fi bir ger\u00e7e\u011fi ABD y\u00f6netiminin nihayet resmi bir belgede, yeni bir Ba\u015fkan g\u00f6revi devralmadan az \u00f6nce dile getirmesi.<\/p>\n

Rapora g\u00f6re, \u00c7in ve Hindistan y\u00fckseliyor, ABD eskisi kadar egemen olamayacak. Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerde tek kutuplu d\u00fcnyadan par\u00e7alanmaya do\u011fru gidilecek. Washington\u2019\u0131n gerekti\u011finde \u201cbir istekliler koalisyonu kurmas\u0131\u201d <\/em>art\u0131k kolay olmayacak. Yeni g\u00fc\u00e7ler 1930\u2019lardakiler gibi verili d\u00fczeni y\u0131kmaya kalkmayacaklar ama, \u201culuslararas\u0131 d\u00fczen\u201d s\u00f6z<\/em>c\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir anlamda art\u0131k yanl\u0131\u015f bir betimleme olacak. Liberal demokratik modelin gelece\u011fi de art\u0131k g\u00fcvenlikte de\u011fil. K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n etkileri \u00f6nemli \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedenlerinin ba\u015f\u0131nda gelecek, silahlanma h\u0131zlanacak… G\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz gibi, t\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n bu k\u00f6\u015fede, son y\u0131llarda dile getirilenlerden eksi\u011fi var fazlas\u0131 yok. \u00d6yleyse, bu rapor asl\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131yla ayn\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri payla\u015f\u0131r gibi yaparken, yeni Ba\u015fkan\u2019a, acilen bu trendi tersine \u00e7evirecek, ABD liderli\u011fini restore edecek bir \u015feyler yapmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyor olamaz m\u0131?<\/p>\n

B\u00f6yle ku\u015fkucu bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n arkas\u0131nda, ABD Kongresi taraf\u0131nda, 6.4 milyon dolar harcanarak haz\u0131rlat\u0131lan \u201cUlusal G\u00fcvenlik Raporu Projesi\u201d <\/strong>ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma var. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u00f6netimlerden \u00fcst d\u00fczey g\u00f6revlilerin kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, Obama\u2019n\u0131<\/strong>n ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6nemi ekibinin ulusal g\u00fcvenlik uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7eren bir \u201cy\u00f6nlendirici koalisyon\u201d<\/em>un g\u00f6zetimi alt\u0131nda haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilen bu raporun, arkas\u0131ndaki siyasi destekten dolay\u0131, (NIC) \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Washington Post\u2019un<\/em> ulusal g\u00fcvenlik uzman\u0131 Walter Pincus<\/strong>\u2019un aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, \u00f6nerileri 2 Aral\u0131k\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan raporda, \u00f6ncelikle 1947\u2019den bu yana ge\u00e7erli olan savunma prensiplerinin, \u00e7ok daha merkezile\u015fmi\u015f, b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fmi\u015f bir g\u00fcvenlik sistemi olu\u015fturulacak bi\u00e7imde<\/strong> de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesi, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sonras\u0131 (y\u0131k\u0131mdan sonra) yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma a\u015famas\u0131nda daha etkin olabilmek i\u00e7in State Department\u2019in ve ABD Uluslararas\u0131 Geli\u015fme Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (USAID) b\u00fct\u00e7elerinin iki kat artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6neriliyormu\u015f (17\/11\/08). Di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle raporun, yeni co\u011frafyalara daha etkin askeri m\u00fcdahale olanaklar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015ftirilmesini ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Anla\u015f\u0131lan, art\u0131k \u201ctarihin sonuna\u201d <\/em>gitmiyoruz ama bulundu\u011fumuzu yer de, korkar\u0131m giderek 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na benzemeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Cumhuriyet \/ 25.11.08<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

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Tarihin sonuna, liberal demokrasinin, k\u00fcresel serbest piyasan\u0131n egemen oldu\u011fu, ABD tarz\u0131n\u0131n genelle\u015fti\u011fi yerdeki (orada, tek olumsuzluk, art\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck olaylar ya\u015fanmayacak olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanan bir can s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131ym\u0131\u015f) istasyona giden tren seferlerinde son y\u0131llarda b\u00fcy\u00fck aksamalar ya\u015fan\u0131yordu. Ge\u00e7en hafta gelen haberlere bak\u0131l\u0131rsa t\u00fcm seferler art\u0131k s\u00fcresiz olarak iptal edildi. Birincisi, seksen y\u0131l \u00f6nce k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin mezar\u0131n\u0131 kazan bir \u201colay\u201d […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_gspb_post_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tuerkiye-basn"],"blocksy_meta":[],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1318"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1318\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}