{"id":1259,"date":"2008-11-17T11:33:39","date_gmt":"2008-11-17T10:33:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wp.mehmetcanyuece.com\/2008\/11\/17\/kriz-konusunda-kim-hakl-ckt-hursit-guenes\/"},"modified":"2008-11-17T11:33:39","modified_gmt":"2008-11-17T10:33:39","slug":"kriz-konusunda-kim-hakl-ckt-hursit-guenes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/kriz-konusunda-kim-hakl-ckt-hursit-guenes\/","title":{"rendered":"Kriz konusunda kim hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131? – Hur\u015fit G\u00fcne\u015f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n \t<\/i> Read Time:<\/span>2 Minute, 15 Second <\/div>\n\n <\/div>

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Baz\u0131 meslekta\u015flar\u0131m\u0131z 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda IMF program\u0131na fazla inan\u0131p yahut da mali sekt\u00f6rde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlara kan\u0131p kriz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etti. Tabii bir hayli de kredibilite kaybettiler. Ancak itiraf etmeliyiz ki, k\u00fcresel kriz konusunda olsun, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin temel k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda olsun \u00e7o\u011fu meslekta\u015f\u0131m uzun s\u00fcredir herkesi uyard\u0131.
Ka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorunu ba\u011f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Aylard\u0131r \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131 hayk\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. \u201cKur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u201d diye bizde ka\u00e7 yaz\u0131 yazd\u0131k, kimse ald\u0131rmad\u0131. \u0130hracat\u0131n kompozisyonu de\u011fi\u015fti. Kimisi \u201cYap\u0131labilecek bir \u015fey yok, sistem dalgal\u0131\u201d dedi. Mali kesim \u201cD\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k sorun de\u011fil, finanse ediliyor\u201d diye ge\u00e7i\u015ftirdi. <\/p>\n


\u0130\u015fadamlar\u0131 yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bor\u00e7lanmaya devam etti. H\u00fck\u00fcmet de \u201cMadem herkes memnun, bana ne!\u201d dedi. Bu noktaya geldik sonunda. \u015eimdi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtelim; T\u00fcrkiye bir d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 sorununun e\u015fi\u011finde. Standart and Poors derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu da bu nedenle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc olumsuza \u00e7evirdi. <\/p>\n

D\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 krizine s\u00fcr\u00fcklenme<\/strong>
Bizim tezimiz \u015fuydu: 2003-2006 d\u00f6neminde s\u0131cak para \u00e7ok yo\u011fun olarak girerken bunu bir Tobin vergisiyle kap\u0131da kar\u015f\u0131lay\u0131n. Giren para uzun vadeli girsin. Mali disiplini s\u0131k\u0131 tutun, para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetin. Faizler d\u00fc\u015fecektir. B\u00f6ylece hem kamu borcu h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fecek, hem de i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim yerine \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olacakt\u0131r. D\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanma da azalacakt\u0131r… Ald\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131.
Elbette bahsedilen d\u00f6nemde cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan t\u00fcm\u00fcyle ka\u00e7\u0131nmak olanaks\u0131zd\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle olu\u015fuyordu. Ama kabul edelim ki 50 milyar dolarl\u0131k da d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k yaratmak gerekmiyordu!
\u015eu anda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ciddi bir durgunlu\u011fun e\u015fi\u011finde. Hi\u00e7bir ciddi \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, bu belki de istenilen bir \u015fey! Fakat Ba\u015fbakan IMF ile anla\u015fman\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fi kayg\u0131s\u0131yla bunu da reddediyor. Oysa IMF ile anla\u015fma olmazsa daha fazla kamu harcamas\u0131 \u00fcretim de\u011fil, artan harcamalar dolay\u0131s\u0131yla daha b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k do\u011furacak.
\u0130ki y\u0131ld\u0131r t\u00fcketim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor diye s\u00fcrekli yaz\u0131yorum. T\u00fcketim endeksleri bunu g\u00f6steriyordu. Bir\u00e7ok bankac\u0131 dostum da sert tepkiler veriyordu. \u0130\u00e7 talebin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamda d\u0131\u015f kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p kredilerini yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131lar. \u015eimdi hatal\u0131 oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. A\u011f\u0131r bir riskin alt\u0131na girmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar. <\/p>\n

IMF konusu<\/strong>
Merkez Bankas\u0131 neredeyse bir y\u0131ld\u0131r bankalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonunun s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu, ancak reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ciddi bir risk ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyordu. Hangi \u00f6nlem al\u0131nd\u0131? Kim bu \u015firketleri d\u00f6vizle bor\u00e7lanmaya sevk etti? Yahut bu bor\u00e7lanmaya kim g\u00f6z yumdu? \u00d6zelle\u015ftirmelerde \u201cEn fazla paray\u0131 bul da nereden bulursan bul\u201d mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmedi mi? \u0130\u015fte b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar \u015fimdi ya\u015fanan risklerini temelini olu\u015fturdu.
Baz\u0131 okuyucular\u0131m IMF\u2019ye yanda\u015f ve kar\u015f\u0131t yaz\u0131lar\u0131mla \u00e7eli\u015fki ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 yazd\u0131lar. A\u00e7\u0131klamakta yarar g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. \u015eu anda \u00e7ok ciddi bir d\u0131\u015f finansman s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmesi ve 2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n daha az bir hasarla atlat\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in IMF\u2019ye gereksinim var. Ancak bir daha yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015flerinin bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir kur sistemine d\u00f6nmemek i\u00e7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00f6viz rezervlerini daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hale getirmeli.
A\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131, ekonomi, finans\u00e7\u0131lara da i\u015fadamlar\u0131na da b\u0131rak\u0131lmayacak kadar \u00f6nemli bir i\u015ftir. 2001 krizine de ayn\u0131 vurdumduymazl\u0131kla girmi\u015ftik. K\u00fcresel krizi de \u00e7\u0131karan haval\u0131 finans\u00e7\u0131lar olmad\u0131 m\u0131? Siz siz olun ekonomistlerin uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmeyin. <\/p>\n

Milliyet \/ 17.11.08<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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Tweet<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Baz\u0131 meslekta\u015flar\u0131m\u0131z 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda IMF program\u0131na fazla inan\u0131p yahut da mali sekt\u00f6rde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlara kan\u0131p kriz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etti. Tabii bir hayli de kredibilite kaybettiler. Ancak itiraf etmeliyiz ki, k\u00fcresel kriz konusunda olsun, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin temel k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda olsun \u00e7o\u011fu meslekta\u015f\u0131m uzun s\u00fcredir herkesi uyard\u0131. Ka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorunu ba\u011f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Aylard\u0131r \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_gspb_post_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tuerkiye-basn"],"blocksy_meta":[],"brizy_media":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1259"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1259\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mcanyuce.net\/eski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}